This is the first biweekly spring flooding seasonal outlook of the 2008 season for the province of Manitoba. Included is a map, and detailed forecast for Southern, Central, and Northern sections. The next update to this page will occur on March 14, 2008.

 

SOUTHERN: Overall, Southern Manitoba is expected to have below normal flooding and/or river rises this spring. This is due to the lack of snow that has come so far this Winter. The average snowpack through the area is 5-20 cm, well below average. In fact, most of our snow came in December. Since then, high pressure has been dominant, and has blocked all hope of major Colorado Lows so far. As result, the only source of snow we’ve had this Winter has come from weak Alberta Clippers that race through the area.  The long, arctic blasts that have plagued the region have also taken their toll on our season. Most clippers would come through as dry colder storms as result, leaving low moisture content in the snowfalls. Unless we see a change in the pattern to a more active one this March, the predicament will likely remain the same.

CENTRAL: An average season seems to be in store for Central Manitoba, as sufficient snowfalls from lows this season have given way to higher snowpacks of about 20-40 cm. Not much to really state so far, as this season doesn’t seem out of the ordinary. There is an exception, though. Areas near the Saskatchewan River are still unknown. We will have to keep an eye on conditions downstream in Saskatchewan and Alberta, as this will be the determining factor of the season. More details to come.

NORTHERN: Much of the same as most of Central Manitoba. Sufficient snowpacks of 30-50 cm.  should not allow too much flooding to occur, and river rises should be average.

Please note that these forecasts may change dramatically in further updates, as it becomes clearer as to whether a rapid melt or slow melt will occur. Future potential ice jams when river ice breaks up can also cause great changeability. It is recommended to watch for Alf Warkentin’s (Manitoba’s Senior Flood Forecaster) flood forecast in the coming weeks. When his forecast is released to the press, I will post a link here. Stay tuned March 14 for an update.

JON